Keyword: climate change

The relationship between climate change and armed conflict has attracted growing scholarly and policy attention. While early research focused primarily on whether climate change increases the onset of new conflicts, a more nuanced understanding has emerged in recent years, recognizing that climate change and its associated disasters can both escalate and de-escalate ongoing armed conflicts. This study examines the conditions under which climate change contributes to conflict escalation or de-escalation, and traces the causal pathways linking climatic stressors to changes in conflict dynamics. Drawing on recent empirical research and illustrative case studies from Syria, Uganda, Pakistan, Somalia, and Aceh (Indonesia), the analysis demonstrates that the impact of climate on conflict is highly context-dependent, shaped by pre-existing vulnerability, the balance of power between warring parties, ethnic fractionalization, state capacity, and the nature of the climate event itself. The study highlights the importance of moving beyond deterministic narratives and embracing a more conditional, pathway-oriented approach to understanding climate-conflict linkages.